The danger of making predictions - Alsin 2001 says sell Apple
Arne Alsin makes some bold - although he probably thought at the time, rational - predictions about Apple’s future back in 2001.
Here’s some statements by Mr Alsin from the article:
- “Don’t buy Apple’s stock. And if you own it, sell it.”
- “the company is no longer an afterthought in PCs — it’s irrelevant.”
- “The game is effectively over. Dell , IBM and Hewlett Packard have a stranglehold on the PC industry that is secure”
- “It’s too bad for Apple that the ending to this chapter in the PC story has already been written.”
- “Apple’s story now is fodder for business historians — don’t make it fodder for your portfolio.”
Although his advice seemed reasonable at the time, it was the absoluteness of it that raises concerns.
Bear in mind that if Apple stock was around $7 then, then it’s worth nearly 2000% that now (remembering the stock split this year). So if you’d bought $1000 worth, they’d be worth $20,000 now. That’s a big miscalculation from someone telling you how to invest your money.
No one predicting the future can be absolute. Be skeptical of anyone giving absolute advice about the future - especially investment advice for YOUR money not theirs.
Read source article: Alsin on Apple, 2001
Read on Digg: In_2001:_Guy_explains_why_you_shouldn_t_invest_in_Apple
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Nice Post,thanks a lot!